Oscars and Hollywood falling in love with themselves over ‘La La Land’

This year’s Oscars, set to air Sunday, Feb. 26, will be historic in dispelling the old “direct-to-video” curse that seemed to lessen the importance of a film, as “Manchester by the Sea,” originally picked up by Amazon, has been nominated in multiple categories. Regardless of how many it earns, the phrase should no longer merely conjure up images of Lorenzo Lamas and explosions.

As far as the front-runner race goes, it seems like Hollywood is falling in love with itself again this season with “La La Land.” It is tied for the most nominations ever received, right up there with “All About Eve” (1950) and “Titanic” (1997). And while “La La Land” is expected to take home many a trophy, it will be hard-pressed to rack up a “Titanic”-sized 11.

This should open the field for many of the other favorites (“Moonlight,” Arrival,” “Manchester”) to snag their share of gold during the 89th Academy Awards. So place your bets on the winners, and I will once again take a stab at handicapping the race while including the nominees that should have received the prize in the category.

Best Picture

• La La Land
• Moonlight
• Manchester By The Sea
• Fences
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Arrival
• Lion
• Hidden Figures
• Hell Or High Water

Who will win: This one’s a lock for “La La,” based on almost every oddsmaker out there.

Who should win: For sheer dramatic purposes, “Moonlight” towers above all others here.

Best Director

• Damien Chazelle - La La Land
• Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester By The Sea
• Barry Kenkins - Moonlight
• Denis Villeneuve - Arrival
• Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge

Who will win: Chazelle looks to take this one as well, though given both “La La Land” and “Moonlight” won Golden Globes (one for musical/comedy, the other for drama), voters could split the difference and had it to Kenkins.

Who should win: Though Villeneuve made some stellar choices in “Arrival,” Kenkins told a heartbreaking tale with both scope and beauty.

Best Actor

• Casey Affleck - Manchester By The Sea
• Denzel Washington - Fences
• Ryan Gosling - La La Land
• Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
• Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic

Who will win: This could be one of the most hotly contested races of the night. If it’s a “La La Land” sweep prior to this, so goes Gosling. But there’s been a swell for both Affleck’s beleaguered loner in “Manchester” and Washington’s performance in the stagey “Fences” adaptation. Final answer: Washington.

Who should win: Mortensen in the little-seen “Fantastic” was a rough, righteous father figure and gave a blistering performance that echoed one of Harrison Ford’s best in “Mosquito Coast.”

Best Actress

• Emma Stone - La La Land
• Natalie Portman - Jackie
• Isabelle Huppert - Elle
• Ruth Negga - Loving
• Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins

Who will win: Stone has swatted away all contenders for this one. Even Mighty Meryl’s supporters agree this was not her strongest year.
 
Who should win: Huppert’s ability to go very dark in “Elle” was one of the year’s better performances, male or female.

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali
• Michael Shannon
• Lucas Hedges
• Jeff Bridges
• Dev Patel

Who will and should win: Ali as Juan in “Moonlight” was the film’s narrative and moral anchor and left a lasting impression long after the final credits.

Best Supporting Actress

• Viola Davis - Fences
• Michelle Williams - Manchester By The Sea
• Naomie Harris - Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman - Lion
• Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures

Who will win: Davis, who reprises her Broadway role as the long-suffering wife, but demonstrates there are certain lines she will not allow her husband to cross.

Who should win: As the drug-addicted, abusive mother in “Moonlight,” Harris’s role is one that required complexity to the point of discomfort.

Other Categories:

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Moonlight
• Arrival
• Hidden Figures
• Fences
• Lion

Who will and should win: Moonlight

Best Original Screenplay

• Manchester by the Sea
• La La Land
• Hell or High Water
• The Lobster
• 20th Century Women

Who will win: “Manchester by the Sea” is looking like a strong contender, but this one may end up in “La La Land.”

Who should win: “The Lobster,” for nothing more than its ability to get made considering the sheer lunacy of its premise (people have 45 days to find a romantic partner or get turned into an animal of their choice). That is what you call original.

Best Cinematography

• Lion
• La La Land
• Arrival
• Moonlight
• Silence

Who will win: Yet another for the “La La Land” camp.

Who should win: “Arrival” had several major flaws, but cinematography was certainly not one of them.

Best Editing

• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land
• Arrival
• Moonlight
• Hell or High Water

Who will and should win: “La La Land,” in one of its few truly deserving categories, spliced together some very memorable show-stoppers.

Best Animated Feature

• Kubo and the Two Strings
• Moana
• My Life as a Zucchini
• The Red Turtle
• Zootopia

Who will win: With its topical context, solid execution and engaging characters, “Zootopia” was easily one of the best films of last year, regardless of animation.

Who should win: As deserving as “Zootopia” is of its accolades, in this division, “Kubo and the Two Strings” had a particular artistry in its animation that was breathtaking.

Best Documentary

• Fire at Sea
• I Am Not Your Negro
• Life, Animated
• O.J.: Made in America
• 13th

Who will and should win: At seven hours, “O.J.” was broken up and served episodically on Netflix, but it deserves the award for being more than just a rehashing, and providing deeper insight and perspective.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Land of Mine
• A Man Called Ove
• The Salesman
• Tanna
• Toni Erdmann

Who will and should win: Look for “Salesman” to win and make a political statement about Trump’s Muslim ban, as its Iranian director has refused to attend.